GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 25, 2016
The GBP/USD pair continued its consolidation and has remarkably sustained its momentum in the face of the USD’s constantly increasing value. Yesterday’s session saw the USD surging even higher as the market speculations for a Fed rate hike increased by up to 100% and has also begun to look ahead for 2017 when it comes to the frequency of interest rate hikes from the Fed. However, since these rate hikes will be dependent on the incoming government, the fate of the US market is yet unsure especially since the market has yet to see how the Trump administration would be handling things in the future.
The UK Autumn statement was released during yesterday’s session and has generally predicted a grim economic outlook for the UK for the next two years since this would be the period where the effects of Brexit would be largely felt by the economy. The growth forecast for the UK market was listed at 1.4% for 2017 and 1.7% for 2018 even though some market players are expecting the actual numbers to be much lower than expected.
The resilience of the GBP will be tested today since the UK GDP data is scheduled to be released during the European session and is expected to have a reading of 0.5%. Once the GDP data either exceeds or matches market expectations, then the GBP/USD could possibly break through 1.2500 and could easily test the 1.2600 region. However, if the data comes out on a much lower range, then the currency pair could drop to 1.2300 and could be subject to significant pressure from the market.