GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 20, 2017
The sterling pound continued its current ranging and consolidating trend within a tight range for the second straight week as the currency pair was virtually unaffected by the dollar’s activity. Both the US and the UK are undergoing a period of large-scale market uncertainty, with the various concerns surrounding the Trump administration and the onslaught of the Brexit process causing the currency pair to be in a deadlock and trade within a pip range of 400-500 during the past few weeks.
UK’s average earnings data and CPI data turned out to be somewhat dismal, but the effect of this data was offset by the release of the claimant count change data which had a very positive reading. This somewhat balanced feel of the UK data is one of the reasons why the sterling pound has maintained its current position in spite of the Brexit process with no signs of falling off soon. Fed Chair Yellen chose the middle ground of the US monetary policy during her statement last week but also said that there is a likely possibility that the central bank will be implementing a rate hike this coming March. The effect of this particular bit of news might have done the USD some good, but then again the US market had to suffer the effects of a very weak wages data in spite of a positive CPI and retail sales data, and this had a significant impact on the movement of the USD’s bulls. Luckily the GBP/USD pair was not that adversely affected and closed down last week’s session at just over 1.2400 points.
For this week, the UK will be releasing its GDP data and the Parliament will be starting to discuss Article 50 which signals the start of the actual Brexit process. This is not expected to deliver new data into the market, but this is expected to add more volatility as it gets passed through the Parliament.